tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3326637105193760599.post8643447865799143955..comments2023-10-29T07:59:32.982-07:00Comments on Stu's old MySpace blog: My prediction on fuel prices (March 11, 2008)bus15237http://www.blogger.com/profile/17860940267143493425noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3326637105193760599.post-89870867241408367082011-10-22T20:34:22.519-07:002011-10-22T20:34:22.519-07:00Some comments from the original 2008 MySpace post:...Some comments from the original 2008 MySpace post:<br /><br /><b>Myself</b><br />I said gas prices would hit $4/gallon, and they did. OK, so they didn't hit my predicted $5 by Labor Day. I guess we can all be thankful. But they are certainly going to be below $3.50 before Election Day, like I said. Here in The 'Burgh, two weeks before the election, mid-grade self-serve is about $3.10 right now.<br /><br />Will we be back to $4 by March 11, 2009? I don't know, but I am certain it will be a lot higher than it is now. Refining capacity has not changed. What we're driving has not changed. Driving habits have not changed much. The only major thing is a worldwide recession that drove down the price of crude. As soon as the world economy turns around, crude will jump again, and so then will the price at the pump.<br /><br />Yeah, I will go out on a limb. $4 by March '09, $5 by September 2010, just what I said in the original blog.<br /><br />I hate being right.<br /><br /><b>Myself</b><br />We hit $4/gallon for mid-grade over Memorial Day weekend, 2008. That's almost 10 months ahead of schedule! I'm wrong in the wrong direction! I'm being too conservative!<br /><br />Revised prediction: $5/gallon by Labor Day weekend 2008 (not 2009), $6 by Memorial Day weekend 2009.<br /><br />In a later blog, I suggested $6.75/gallon for a flat price, just like I likewise suggested, in August 2005, $4 for that flat price. At the current rate of increase, we will be at $6.75 by Labor Day 2009 without such a tax.<br /><br />Again, we need stability. Fix the price high but stable, then vary the tax, shrinking it as the underlying price rises. At a fixed trigger point, re-bump the tax, and the price, to restabilize the price.<br /><br /><b>Myself</b><br />$3.75 by <i>Memorial Day</i> instead of Labor Day. I was being conservative back on March 11. Eight weeks later, I'm way ahead of schedule.<br /><br /><b>Myself</b><br />Mid-grade hit $3.55(9)/gallon today after holding at $3.45(9) for several weeks. No climb, just a 10-cent jump. So my first prediction was spot-on.<br /><br />Meanwhile, John McCain announced in Pittsburgh a couple days ago that he wants to eliminate the 18-cent/gallon federal gasoline tax during the summer driving season. What good is that going to do? Duh! Those taxes are needed to fund needed highway maintenance. Election year posturing and empty promises, that's all that is. "Popular" does not equate to "Brilliant".<br /><br /><b><a href="http://www.myspace.com/ziontherapy" rel="nofollow">Christian(tm)</a></b><br />I'm not that much into predictions either, but I'm pretty sure we'll see $4 per gallon before July 4, 2008. The reality of emence demand for a commodity with finite supply is finally hitting the main stream. Warren Buffet admitted our peak oil reality on CNBC last week. President Bush has eluded to it several times in the past month or so. The Pentagon, GAO, many in Congress, Shell Oil, CACI, Defense Department, and a sleu of others have all been telling those who care to listen that depletion of oil fields is real, and demand is outstripping supply. As the cost to suck oil out of the Earth goes up, so will the price at the pump.<br /><br />I used to get bulletins saying that gas is way too expensive and to boycott this gas station, or don't buy gas on this day. I took the time to reply to each and every one of them to explain how supply and demand work. I've only seen two such bulletins in the past few months. I think people get it much more now than they did just a year or two ago.bus15237https://www.blogger.com/profile/17860940267143493425noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3326637105193760599.post-77667768033603907572011-10-22T20:28:38.553-07:002011-10-22T20:28:38.553-07:00Comments on the original 2008 post:
Myself, Apr 1...Comments on the original 2008 post:<br /><br /><b>Myself, Apr 18, 2008 1:11 PM</b> Update to my prediction on fuel prices<br /> Remember this blog from a couple of weeks ago? I predicted $3.50/gallon for mid-grade before May 1.<br /><br />The station I use bumped its price for mid-grade today to $3.55(9)/gallon. And we're still a couple weeks away from May 1.<br /><br />I'm still sticking with $3.75 before Labor Day. With $114/bbl for crude and a sagging dollar, I'm confident that that prediction will hold, too.<br /><br />Then let's see what shenanigans John McCain and his pals can pull to bring the price back under $3.50 by November 4, the better to swing the election to the GOP side, like was done in 2004 and 2000.bus15237https://www.blogger.com/profile/17860940267143493425noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3326637105193760599.post-54201754033941380062011-10-22T16:13:55.070-07:002011-10-22T16:13:55.070-07:00Gasoline hit $4/gallon in mid-2008, just as I pred...Gasoline hit $4/gallon in mid-2008, just as I predicted, then dropped back, just as I predicted. I was less right about 2009 and 2010, though it has returned to $4 once since then. Some cool links in this post, too, which still work!bus15237https://www.blogger.com/profile/17860940267143493425noreply@blogger.com